Economic Performance of Maritime Industry – 5

توسطdouraghi 4 ماهپیش

 Economic Performance of Maritime Industry - from 28th of November to 18th of December

 

Dry Bulk

Considering that a surge had been started in November 16th which increased the Baltic Dry Index from 1361 points to 1506 in 28th of November, did not stop until it got to 1743 on 12th of December. This increase in freight rates is resulted by several factors such as decline in available tonnage (both due to demolitions since last year and the increase in laid up vessels) and also the increase in global trade before Christmas. The latest Baltic Dry index is the highest rate established since February of 2014. Of course, this phase ended in 12th and the index has been declining ever since, and in 6 days got it to 1619 points (18th of December). If history is right, this peak - after 3 years- which is a lot like the increase in December of 2013 –which happened after the world economy decline reached dry bulk sector in early 2011 and lowered the index to 662 in early 2012- will keep on shrinking until early 2018. Although this is just a speculation and many factors may change the game plan which ultimately can make the results “not the same”.

Looking closer to the index, it makes it clear that like always Cape size is the winner amongst all the other sizes. Shockingly up by 634 points, Cape size reached its three-year high in 12th of December, which did not last for no more than 6 days and fell by 516 point and stood at 3777 on 18th. With 398 points increase (compared to 28th of November), Panamax reached 1718 points but after a steep fall it shrank to 1677 in 15th. However Supramaxes experienced much less fluctuation compared to the others and from 929 points of November, 28th reached to 942 points in December, 15th. The little players (Handy Size) also reached 636 points on 15th of December, up by 16 points.

According to Alibra, Time Charter rates of Handy size, Supramax and Panamax experienced their most increase in 6-month contracts. However, Capesizes looked most profitable in 1-year and 2-year contracts.

Baltic Dry Index

Baltic Dry Index

  

Container

Shanghai Shipping Exchange announced its China Containerized Freight Index (Persian Gulf/Red Sea route), 587.62 points on December, 8th which by a 18.35 fall reached 569.27 on December, 15th. On the same route, the other index by China Freight Forwarders (CFFI), in China-Middle east route, established 559 points on 15th of December, which of course experienced a steep rise of 53 points since 8th of December.

However, in spite of these positive numbers, not only the specific rates of China to Bandar Abbas (Persian Gulf) did not experience any rise, but the freights are also declining even by a faster pace than couple of months ago. Below sample rates, which is provided by Douraghi team, show even lower rates than the one published on 28th of November.

POL

POD

USD/OF 20’

USD/OF 40’

Validity

Shanghai

Bandar Abbas

500

590

25th Dec

Ningbo

Bandar Abbas

415

440

25th Dec

Shenzhen

Bandar Abbas

410

420

23th Dec

Tianjin

Bandar Abbas

550

685

25th Dec

Containerized freight around the world is experiencing a similar situation as before. New contex, up by 2 points, stands at 403 points which is not at all favorable to shipping lines. Harper Petersen Index showed a-1-point-fall in its comprehensive index of December, 9th, which makes it 477. After Harpex hit rock bottom in August, it experienced a sharp rise but it was very short and it seems that a further decline or at its best a stability will be reached. The incremental growth of New contex and up-by-one-down-by-two trend of harpex seems to be ruling the containerized freight in the last couple of months, which can be due to the new rule in China which targets quality rather than quantity, or can be the result of delivery of the megaships of above 21000 TEU,  since early 2017.

China containerized freight export indices like CFFI (China Freight Forwarders Index) and CCFI (Shanghai Shipping Exchange) also shows a decline in the freight rates. CFFI established a comprehensive index of 919 (lowest in last two months) down from 969 points of December, 1st. CCFI also established comprehensive index of 764.43 in December, 15th, which has fallen from 870 in mid-2017.

New Contex

New Contex

Tankers

Last but not least, Baltic indices of clean and dirty tankers show a more positive view compared to Container sector. Clean tankers, carrying light oil products such as naphtha or gasoline, keeps on rising after its sharp decline in October, and reaches 707 points on December,15th (up from 611 on 28th of November). Of course, clean tankers freight rate increase is overtaking dirty tankers freight rate increase which has only been rising by 16 points since 28th of November.

Baltic Clean and Dry Index

Baltic Clean and Dry Tankers Index

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  economic analysis
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